Track record
When the model says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? Here are all checked predictions, by confidence band and by prediction type.
The numbers for the last 120 days
The model made predictions for 9,235 matches since 16/07/2026. On strong readings, when the chance is above 70%, it was right 78.0% of 20,593 times.
Quando o modelo diz, acontece
- Said 40% to 50%: happened 43.7% (5,813 predictions)
- Said 50% to 60%: happened 54.0% (17,592 predictions)
- Said 60% to 70%: happened 65.9% (11,412 predictions)
- Said 70% to 80%: happened 75.5% (15,320 predictions)
- Said 80% to 90%: happened 84.8% (4,976 predictions)
- Said 90% to 100%: happened 94.3% (297 predictions)
Compared with a fixed guess
A fixed guess is always picking the same thing, like always the home team.
- Result: 50.2% for the model vs 45.5% for the fixed guess
- Double chance: 77.7% for the model vs 74.7% for the fixed guess
- Over or under 1.5 goals: 75.0% for the model vs 75.0% for the fixed guess
- Over or under 2.5 goals: 57.9% for the model vs 51.9% for the fixed guess
- Over or under 3.5 goals: 69.9% for the model vs 69.7% for the fixed guess
- Both teams score: 55.1% for the model vs 52.5% for the fixed guess