Track record
When the model says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? Here are all checked predictions, by confidence band and by prediction type.
The numbers for the last 120 days
The model made predictions for 8,880 matches since 08/07/2026. On strong readings, when the chance is above 70%, it was right 77.9% of 19,635 times.
Quando o modelo diz, acontece
- Said 40% to 50%: happened 43.6% (5,659 predictions)
- Said 50% to 60%: happened 54.2% (16,868 predictions)
- Said 60% to 70%: happened 65.6% (11,118 predictions)
- Said 70% to 80%: happened 75.4% (14,597 predictions)
- Said 80% to 90%: happened 84.5% (4,776 predictions)
- Said 90% to 100%: happened 93.1% (262 predictions)
Compared with a fixed guess
A fixed guess is always picking the same thing, like always the home team.
- Result: 49.8% for the model vs 45.6% for the fixed guess
- Double chance: 77.4% for the model vs 74.5% for the fixed guess
- Over or under 1.5 goals: 74.4% for the model vs 74.4% for the fixed guess
- Over or under 2.5 goals: 57.9% for the model vs 51.5% for the fixed guess
- Over or under 3.5 goals: 70.2% for the model vs 70.0% for the fixed guess
- Both teams score: 55.3% for the model vs 52.3% for the fixed guess